How Many People Would Be Mass Deported Under Trump? What the Plans Say and Who Is at Risk

Key Point:

• Through fiscal year 2026, ICE has reported over 356,000 removals, roughly 1,260 per day, while monthly arrests have surged past 43,000 to 46,000. Daily removal numbers have stayed relatively flat even as arrests hit new highs.
• The immigration court backlog now exceeds 3.19 million cases, and judges have issued over 555,000 removal or voluntary departure orders this fiscal year, about 82% of completed cases.
• Enforcement priorities shift, but people with a final removal order, certain criminal histories, or no pending case are generally most at risk. Having a pending application or valid status provides more protection, so early legal advice matters. No law firm can make anyone “untouchable.”

Immigration enforcement is one of the most charged issues in the country, and mass deportation has been a central political promise. Many people ask how realistic those plans are, how many people are actually affected, and who is most at risk. This guide lays out what the current numbers show and, more importantly, what you can do to protect yourself and your family. At Aftalion Law Group, we help immigrants understand their real options during uncertain times.

How Many People Are Actually Being Deported in 2026?

There is no single projected total, because the numbers depend on funding, court capacity, and policies still being litigated. But the reported figures for fiscal year 2026 give a picture of the current pace:

• ICE has reported over 356,000 removals in FY2026, averaging roughly 1,260 per day.
• Monthly arrests have surged, with book-ins exceeding 43,000 to 46,000 and peak periods averaging 1,500 to 1,900 arrests per day.
• The ICE detention population sits around 65,000 to 68,000, with roughly 60% having criminal convictions or pending charges.

One thing the data shows clearly: even as arrests hit new highs, daily removal numbers have stayed relatively flat compared with previous enforcement stretches, largely because of court capacity. Which points to the real bottleneck.

What Do the Immigration Court Backlogs Mean for You?

The immigration court system is overwhelmed, and that shapes how cases actually move:

• The active backlog exceeds 3.19 million pending cases.
• Immigration judges have issued over 555,000 removal or voluntary departure orders this fiscal year through June, about 82% of completed cases.

For someone in proceedings, this cuts both ways. Cases can take years to reach a hearing, but when they do, the odds of a removal order are high. That waiting period is exactly the window to build a defense, gather evidence, and pursue any relief you qualify for, not time to sit idle.

What Is Project 2025?

Project 2025 is a policy road map published by conservative groups. It is a set of proposals, not enacted law, and whose parts are implemented and how continues to develop. Its immigration-related proposals have included expanded deportation efforts, restrictions on asylum, increased ICE activity, tighter border security, and limits on programs like DACA and TPS.

Who Is Most at Risk?

Enforcement priorities shift between administrations, but people generally at higher risk include those with a final order of removal, those with certain criminal histories, recent entrants subject to expedited removal, and individuals without any pending application or protection. Having a pending case, relief application, or valid status generally provides more protection than having nothing on file, which is why speaking to an attorney early matters so much.

How Can You Protect Yourself?

Regardless of what any single policy proposal contains, you have rights and options:

• Know your rights. You have constitutional protections regardless of status. Read our guide on whether undocumented immigrants have constitutional rights.
• Check your eligibility for relief. Many people qualify for protections they are unaware of, such as asylum, cancellation of removal, family petitions, or VAWA.
• Have a plan. Keep documents organized, know who to call, and consult an attorney before making decisions about travel or filings.
• Get ahead of enforcement. If you have a prior order or any criminal history, review it with counsel now, not after an encounter.